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Prediction for CME (2022-10-09T23:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-10-09T23:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21956/-1
CME Note: Visible in SE of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Associated with filament eruption located around S30E40 starting at 2022-10-09T22:30Z. Best seen in SDO AIA 193 and 304. Also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195. UPDATE (2022-10-21T15:45Z) from Tarik (LASSOS Team): There is no ICME signature on 2022-10-14, however, a clear Stream Interaction Region (SIR) is evident in the L1 signatures. The SIR start and the HSS start is denoted by gold and blue lines respectively. The SIR start is identified by rotations in the field components (because of compression) and start of a turbulent period of field components. Also, enhancements of the magnetic field and proton density is observed at the interface and you can see the bulk speed to increase till the start of the HSS (after which this should remain constant).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-14T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

See prediction details from SIDC Ursigram excerpt below:
:Issued: 2022 Oct 11 1231 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 21011
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Oct 2022, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 11 Oct 2022 until 13 Oct 2022) 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Oct 2022  10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 007 
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Oct 2022  10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 007 
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Oct 2022  10CM FLUX: 163 / AP: 007
...

A slow CME with an apparent angular width of around 70 degrees was observed on 10 October (first seen in LASCO-C2 at 00:24 UT). It was directed mostly to the south east, but an Earth-directed component cannot be discarded, a glancing blow may occur on 14 October.

...

Lead Time: 78.38 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2022-10-11T11:37Z

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